When South Africa will turn the corner

Bank of America (BofA) has welcomed Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s reappointment, believing that South Africa’s GDP could start improving in the next few years and “turn the corner” in 2026 amid an enhanced performance from Eskom.

Following the 2024 election, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced a Government of National Unity (GNU) as the ANC lost its majority in parliament.

Ten other parties have joined the GNU: DA, IFP, Good, PA, FF Plus, UDM, Rise Mzansi, PAC, Al-Jama Ah, and UAT.

Thus, the president included several of these parties in his cabinet, which increased from 30 to 32 to accommodate the new faces.

The markets have responded positively to the retention of the ANC’s Godongwana.

BofA said that Godongwana’s fiscal plan could benefit from potentially strong growth due to reduced levels of load shedding.

The government expects a main budget deficit of 4.3% of GDP in 2024/25 (BofA: 4.5%) and 3.9% in 2025 (BofA: 4.1%)

When including Eskom’s debt support, BofA’s all-in deficit is at 5.4% in 2024/25 and 4% in 2026/27.

During the 2023 Budget, Godongwana announced Eskom debt relief amounting to R254 billion from 2023/24 to 2025/2026.

BofA said that 2026 could be a turning point as Eskom will need no further support, leading to enough of a primary surplus to ensure debt stabilisation. (a year later than Treasury’s baseline).

Load shedding

Better electricity supply should also drive GDP growth stronger and result in better tax revenues.

Electricity supply has improved since April, with over 100 days of no load shedding in the country - the first time since 2021.

The enhanced power supply could represent a significant structural improvement if sustained for the rest of the year.

This could drive GDP growth towards 2% over the medium term.

“Stronger GDP growth should drive budget revenue growth higher. An improving fiscal outlook will likely result in tighter asset swap spreads over the medium term,” said BofA.

However, South Africa’s economy is not expected to shoot the lights out in the short term.

BofA economist Tatonga Rusike previously said that GDP should grow by 1.3% in 2024.

Other economists and analysts generally expect GDP to grow by roughly 1%.

Although this would be an improvement from 2023’s GDP growth of 0.6%, it is still incredibly low and far below what the country needs to keep up with population growth.

South Africa’s population growth generally hovers around 1.5%, meaning that anything below that figure represents a per-capita recession, meaning South Africans are getting poorer.

What to do

Amidst the low-growth environment, several prominent CEOs in South Africa recently spoke of what the country needs to do.

Discovery CEO Adrian Gore said that the Presidential task team Operation Vulindlela should have a unit focused on economic growth and jobs.

Standard Bank CEO Sim Tshabalala said that the state needs to be incapacitated and work with civil society and business to drive growth.

Tshabalala said that the Public Service Amendment Bill should be accelerated. This bill would introduce transparent and competitive recruitment processes in the public service, improve pay, and increase civil servants’ status.

Investec Bank CEO Cumesh Moodliar also called for greater public-private partnerships (PPPs), with a focus on logistics amid South Africa’s poor-performing ports and railroads


SA is encouraged by the new Home Affairs Minister`s focus on remote working visas

South Africa`s new Home Affairs Minister, Dr Leon Schreiber’s focus on remote working visas has been met with widespread enthusiasm.

He aims to attract digital nomads and remote workers from around the globe, positioning South Africa as a prime destination for professionals seeking a balance of work and leisure.

The Home Affairs Minister has expressed his commitment to making South Africa a more accessible and appealing location for remote workers.

Dr Schreiber emphasised the potential economic benefits and the opportunity to showcase the country`s diverse landscapes and vibrant culture to a broader audience.

`Remote working is not just a trend; it`s a transformation in how we live and work,` he said.

`By facilitating easier access for remote workers, we are opening doors to economic growth, tourism, and cultural exchange.`

The push for remote working visas aligns with global shifts in work culture, accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Countries worldwide are recognising the value of attracting remote workers who contribute to local economies while enjoying the benefits of a flexible work environment.

South Africa`s appeal to remote workers lies not only in its diverse attractions, but also in its infrastructure and connectivity. The country offers a range of environments conducive to both productivity and relaxation.

Industry experts have applauded the minister`s initiative, highlighting the potential for South Africa to become a leading destination for digital nomads.

`This focus on remote working visas is a game-changer,` said a representative from the South African Tourism Board.

`It showcases our commitment to innovation and adaptability in an ever-changing world.`

As South Africa gears up to implement these changes, remote workers can look forward to a welcoming environment that supports their lifestyle and professional needs.

The new visa policies are expected to streamline the process, making it easier for digital nomads to live and work in South Africa for extended periods.



New Zealand tightens visa rules for foreign workers and families; key details here

Synopsis
The key change is that individuals holding an Accredited Employer Work Visa (AEWV) at ANZSCO skill levels 4 and 5, without a clear pathway to residency, can no longer sponsor their partners and dependent children for work, visitor
On June 26, 2024, New Zealand implemented changes to its visa regulations that will impact certain foreign workers and their families. The new rules aim to streamline the visa application process and align it more closely with the country`s economic and immigration priorities.
The key change is that individuals holding an Accredited Employer Work Visa (AEWV) at ANZSCO skill levels 4 and 5, without a clear pathway to residency, can no longer sponsor their partners and dependent children for work, visitor, or student visas in New Zealand. This adjustment brings the AEWV scheme more in line with the previous Essential Skills Work Visa program.

However, it`s important to note that partners and dependent children can still apply for their own visas, such as the Accredited Employer Work Visa or international student visas, as long as they meet the respective criteria. Additionally, the new rules do not impact individuals who already hold visas as partners or dependents, nor do they affect AEWV holders in ANZSCO level 4 and 5 roles with established pathways to residency, including the Green List and sector agreements.
The New Zealand Government has also confirmed that applications currently in progress for partner or dependent child visas will be assessed under the regulations in place at the time of application, ensuring continuity for affected individuals.
If you had already supported your family`s visa application before June 26th, 2024, you may still be able to sponsor a visa for your partner or dependent child under certain conditions. This includes situations where they already held a visa based on their relationship with you, or if their work, visitor, or student visa application was in progress before the rule change and was approved afterward.


For AEWV holders in ANZSCO skill levels 4 or 5 who earn less than NZD USD 47.41 per hour, you may still be able to sponsor a visa for your partner or dependent children. In order to be able to sponsor a partner of a Worker Work Visa for your partner, you will need to show that you earn at least NZD USD 29.66 per hour, whereas for a child of a Worker Visitor Visa or a Dependent Child Student Visa for your dependent children, you will need to provide a proof of least NZD USD 43,322.76 annually.

If your earnings are below NZD USD 29.66 per hour, you may be able to support a Partner of a Worker Visitor Visa instead. Additionally, you could sponsor a work visa with open conditions if you earn at least NZD USD 59.32 per hour or if your job is listed on the Green List and you meet the role`s specific requirements.

These changes are part of a broader effort by the New Zealand government to streamline the visa application process and ensure that it aligns with the country`s economic and immigration priorities.


700,000 IDs Are Still Blocked by Home Affairs in South Africa: Are You One of Them? Check Here

700,000 IDs Are Still Blocked by Home Affairs in South Africa: Are You One of Them? Check Here: In a landmark ruling that could potentially alter the lives of hundreds of thousands, the Gauteng High Court in Pretoria has declared the Department of Home Affairs’ (DHA) practice of blocking South African IDs as unconstitutional.
700,000 IDs Are Still Blocked by Home Affair
This judgment comes as a significant relief to many who have found themselves in a state of bureaucratic limbo, unable to access essential services due to the arbitrary blocking of their identification documents.
The legal battle, spearheaded by Lawyers for Human Rights (LHR), Legal Wise South Africa, and the Children’s Institute, highlights the severe implications of the DHA’s actions. The department, in its attempt to maintain the integrity of the National Population Register, blocked IDs it suspected to be fraudulent without prior notice or fair administrative processes. This practice left many individuals effectively stateless, unable to engage in fundamental aspects of daily life.
The Unconstitutional Practice of Blocking IDs
The issue dates back to May 2012, when the DHA initiated a campaign to address duplicate IDs in the National Population Register. What began with 29,000 identity documents quickly escalated, and by 2020, over one million IDs had markers placed against them, leading to their blocking. While the department has since unblocked 1.8 million IDs, more than 700,000 remain blocked, leaving those affected in a precarious situation.
The Gauteng High Court’s judgment, delivered by Judge Elmarie van der Schyff, declared that the DHA’s practice was an unjust and irregular administrative action inconsistent with the South African Constitution. The court emphasized that a mere suspicion of fraud did not justify the blocking of IDs without following just administrative procedures.
The Human Cost
The consequences of this practice have been far-reaching. Affected individuals, unable to obtain passports, travel, access education, healthcare, or even open bank accounts, have been rendered invisible in the eyes of the state. This “ghosting” effect not only disrupts the lives of adults but also severely impacts children whose parents’ IDs have been blocked.
Phindile Mazibuko, an Eswatini citizen who has lived in South Africa since 1998, brought the initial application forward. Her ID was blocked, and she faced the threat of losing her permanent residency. This case, joined by LHR and Legal Wise South Africa, was a matter of public interest, seeking to unblock the IDs and restore the affected individuals’ rights.
LHR, in their founding affidavit, argued that the blocking of IDs was unconstitutional as it left people in a state of statelessness. “They become ghosts in the system - they cannot obtain passports and travel, they cannot access education and healthcare, they cannot open or access bank accounts,” the organization stated.
The Court’s Decision
In her ruling, Judge Van der Schyff pointed out that while the Director-General has a responsibility to protect the integrity of the national population register, doing so without following just administrative procedures constitutes mischief. She stated that suspicion alone was insufficient to justify the blocking of IDs unless authorized through a court order, thus asserting that the DHA had overstepped its bounds.
The DHA, in its answering affidavit, admitted that the IDs were blocked without a fair and just administrative process, acknowledging that this was inconsistent with the Constitution. The department claimed to have since developed a procedurally fair and transparent system, although it still involves placing markers or blocking IDs.
Moving Forward
The court has ordered the DHA to assess whether unblocking the currently blocked IDs would pose a security risk and to determine the status of LHR and Legal Wise clients within 90 days. The declaration has been suspended for 12 months, providing the DHA with time to comply with the order.
LHR has welcomed the ruling as a significant step towards ensuring a fair and just administrative process. Palesa Maloisane, LHR’s Legal Consultant for Statelessness, emphasized the importance of this judgment in preventing statelessness and restoring citizenship and dignity to those affected. She expressed hope that the DHA would swiftly resolve the cases, particularly those involving children, to enable affected individuals to reclaim their lives and access essential services.
Check Your Status
If you suspect that your ID may be among the 700,000 still blocked, it is crucial to check your status and take necessary actions. Contact the DHA or seek assistance from organizations like LHR to ensure your rights are restored. This ruling marks the beginning of a journey towards justice and dignity for all South Africans affected by this unjust practice.
Conclusion
The Gauteng High Court’s decision is a critical victory for human rights and the rule of law in South Africa. It underscores the necessity of fair administrative processes and the protection of individuals’ rights against arbitrary state actions. As the DHA works to comply with the court’s order, the hope is that those affected will soon be able to fully participate in society, free from the constraints of a blocked ID


Change in visa rules in Australia - how will it impact Indians

Synopsis
Starting July 1, 2024, changes to Australian student visa rules require offshore applications. Temporary Graduate visa holders must explore job opportunities for extended stay. Post-study work rights are shorter with stricter English
Effective July 1, 2024, individuals applying for an Australian student visa must begin their application process from outside the country, rather than within Australia. This change affects holders of specific visas, such as Visitor and Temporary Graduate visas, who will no longer be allowed to apply for student visas while in Australia. The Australian government emphasizes that it will only consider student visa applications from offshore applicants who can demonstrate a genuine intention to pursue studies in Australia.

Visitors, Temporary Graduate visa holders, and other specified visa holders currently in Australia are ineligible to apply for Student visas under the new rules. However, student visa applications already lodged within Australia before July 1, 2024, will continue to be processed unaffected by these regulations. Holders of Working Holiday Maker and Work and Holiday visas are also exempt from these changes and will not face any impact on their current visa statuses.
Australia`s government has clearly stated that temporary graduates should plan to leave the country when their visa expires or explore job opportunities that could lead to employer-sponsored visas or permanent residency if they wish to remain in Australia. According to the recent `Graduates in Limbo` report by the Grattan Institute, 32 percent of Temporary Graduate Visa holders are opting to return to study to extend their stay in Australia beyond their visa`s duration.

These changes align with additional reforms scheduled for implementation on July 1 for Temporary Graduate visa holders. These reforms include notably shorter post-study work rights, a reduction in age eligibility from 50 to 35 years old, and heightened English language proficiency requirements introduced in March.

Prospective students can apply for their Student visa from overseas and travel to Australia while awaiting their visa decision. However, they must possess or be granted a visa that permits entry and stay in Australia during this period. It`s important to note that offshore Student visa applicants are ineligible for a Bridging visa to remain in Australia while their application is processed.

Under the new regulations, holders of visitor visas are permitted to study for up to three months while their visa is valid. Individuals planning to pursue studies exceeding this period must apply for a Student visa from outside Australia.

Certain visa holders in Australia, including Temporary Graduate, Maritime Crew, and Visitor visa subclasses, are now prohibited from applying for a Student visa while within the country. Specifically affected visa types include Subclass 485 (Temporary Graduate), Subclass 600 (Visitor), Subclass 601 (Electronic Travel Authority), Subclass 602 (Medical Treatment), Subclass 651 (eVisitor), and Subclass 988 (Maritime Crew). Additionally, holders of Subclass 403 (Temporary Work) under the International Relations (Domestic Worker - Diplomatic or Consular) stream, Subclass 426 (Domestic Worker (Temporary) - Diplomatic or Consular), Subclass 771 (Transit), and Subclass 995 (Diplomatic Temporary - primary visa holders only) are already ineligible to lodge valid Student visa applications while in Australia.