Against a backdrop of better prospects, Ninety One anticipates SA's economy to grow by as much as 1.7% next year.
South Africans are generally optimistic, but the long, dark years of state capture and load shedding have weighed heavily on the national psyche.

With an energy availability factor hovering in the mid-fifty percent range in 2023, South Africans braced themselves for stage 7 or higher load shedding as winter approached. The electricity crisis acted as a permanent handbrake on our economy, leaving consumers and businesses idling in the parking lot of SA Inc.

There’s nothing like a crisis to force change
Most of the required reforms to alleviate load shedding were already enacted at the peak of the electricity crisis. The President’s establishment of a “war room” in the form of the National Energy Crisis Committee (Necom) allowed government, business, and consumers to all play a pivotal role in finding ways out of the energy crisis.

Since late March this year, we’ve had no load shedding, and the energy availability factor is above 70%.
Businesses and households have invested substantially in renewable energy, resulting in reduced demand on Eskom generation. It has also allowed the national power utility to perform critical maintenance at its power stations.

Renewable energy has become a much larger component of the energy mix, effectively doubling from around 10% of installed capacity to 20% over the last 2 years. The huge acceleration of private-public partnerships means that Nersa-registered projects are sitting at 9.7GW, with their capacity close to Eskom’s Medupi and Kusile power stations.

Additionally, rooftop solar energy has almost trebled over the last 2 years to 6GW. While rapid growth in energy generation is helping to get South Africa back on track, we are also seeing much-needed transmission reform.

Rand bouncing back
Substantial improvements on the electricity front have helped the rand to recover. A staggering 75% of the rand’s underperformance over the last 2 years can be attributed to load shedding. Figure 1 shows how the gap between the currency’s expected return and actual return widened dramatically as SA reached record-breaking levels of load shedding in 2023.

The peak of the rand’s underperformance was in May last year, but since then, the discount in the rand has steadily closed.
With the SA election out of the way and no load shedding since late March, the rand looks fairly valued. We expect the currency to be more stable than in the past. Improving terms of trade, softer oil prices and stronger commodity prices also support the rand.

Infrastructure spend to provide much-needed ‘juice’ to SA economy
The government of national unity (GNU) delivered a pragmatic medium-term budget, vowing to get the debt-to-GDP ratio under control. This was in line with the fiscal consolidation path that National Treasury committed to ahead of the 2023 medium-term budget policy statement (MTBPS).

In last year’s MTBPS significant spending cuts were pencilled in to address revenue slippages. Ahead of the election, there was scepticism about whether politicians would give National Treasury the necessary space to maintain fiscal prudence.
The GNU medium-term budget has stayed the course, with debt consolidation an essential strategy for putting government finances on a healthier footing.

While the government will have to do some tap dancing to keep investors, rating agencies, and public sector unions happy, a better growth rate will go a long way to help South Africa out of the debt hole.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana outlined additional reforms to support public and private investments in growth-boosting infrastructure, with the MTBPS dedicating a chapter to this important issue.  The GNU’s strong commitment to infrastructure investment was evident in the MTBPS.

The second phase of Operation Vulindlela will build on this foundation, targeting critical infrastructure bottlenecks that stem from municipal capacity constraints. Areas of focus will still be along the broad categories of energy, transport, digital infrastructure and water. These initiatives will not only be a ‘life saver’ for communities and businesses but will serve as an important engine of growth.
While public infrastructure spending has been largely absent over the last few years, the South Africa National Road Agency (Sanral) has been carrying the infrastructure torch. The parastatal has reached for its wallet, allocating R26 billion to essential road upgrades from its R42 billion cash pile.

Further tenders are in the pipeline. Sanral’s infrastructure projects are already having a powerful multiplier effect across the broader economy, supporting job creation, local businesses, and community upliftment.

Can the GNU deliver growth?
It’s too early to tell whether the GNU has moved the growth dial. While there are some policy disagreements among the GNU parties, they are united in getting growth going. Our new system of governance has sparked competition and cooperation among ministers, which should ultimately benefit SA Inc.

Some ministries now have a DA minister paired with an ANC deputy minister and vice versa. They have to cooperate to get results.
But the GNU ministers are also in competition mode, as they need to sell their party’s service delivery success to voters in the next local and national election.

This situation has created some healthy competition, and like fund managers, ministers now must worry about relative performance – how are they faring relative to their peers? Some ministers are already hogging the limelight.
For example, Home Affairs Minister Leon Schreiber, is spearheading visa reforms to boost growth while Trade and Industry Minister Parks Tau is forging a closer relationship with business, focusing on policy reforms that will help to attract investments into the economy.

Benign inflation outlook and rate-cutting cycle bolstering the economy
Growth has been limping along this year, but decelerating inflation and a lower interest rate environment are helping to lift business and consumer confidence.

Two-pot withdrawals are also providing a short-term boost to households.
CPI inflation has remained comfortably within the target band, and we expect it to move lower, averaging less than 4% over 2025.
This should give the South African Reserve Bank room to continue cutting interest rates. SA is now aligned with the global economic cycle for the first time in many years, which bodes well for local assets. Against this backdrop, we anticipate economic growth of 1.7% next year.

A supportive environment for SA bond market
The favourable outlook for the rand, inflation, interest rates and growth supports our bond market. We believe the high yields on SA bonds sufficiently protect against the risks and represent good value over the medium- to longer-term.
Income will remain an important driver of returns, with high yields offering investors the opportunity to earn returns well ahead of inflation.

In conclusion, South Africa is in a much better place than a year ago, but the GNU needs to ensure it delivers on its promises. Now that the electricity handbrake is being lifted, there’s every chance that South Africa will get back on track.

•    Fishermen found a wooden canoe with dead migrants 69km from Dakar, Senegal.
•    The West African migration route to the Canary Islands has surged 100% this year.
•    Poverty and lack of opportunities in Senegal drive migrants to risk the dangerous journey.
It was a warm Monday morning in September when a group of fishermen came across a wooden canoe packed with dead migrants floating 70km from Senegal’s capital, Dakar.

The migrants, whose bodies were in an “advanced state of decomposition”, are believed to have been making the treacherous 2000km journey from Senegal to the Spanish Canary Islands off the coast of northwest Africa.
It was not the first ghost boat to be discovered by fishermen, with more and more desperate migrants cramming on to rickety wooden boats that often fall apart or are blown across the Atlantic before reaching their destination.
Despite knowing the risks, which include death by starvation, dehydration and drowning, thousands of migrants from Senegal brave the journey every year and there are no signs of the route slowing down, unlike most other migration journeys in Europe.
Migration crossings through the west Mediterranean decreased by 1% in the first nine months of the year, while in the central Mediterranean, the journeys plummeted 64%.

A migrant boat arrives at the port of La Restinga, Spain’s southernmost settlement.
But the West African route has surged 100% this year, Frontex figures show, bucking a wider trend.
Ousmane* made the week-long journey from Senegal to the Canary Islands on a rickety wooden boat surrounded by lifeless bodies fearing he would be the next to die.

“Women cry and cry, and so do the men, just because it is so hard to be in the bottom of the boat, surrounded by death. Sometimes you even lose your memory and black out,” Ousmane told the Telegraph.
The young man, who would not reveal his name or age, completed his journey, but fellow passengers weren’t so lucky.
The death toll along the migration route has surpassed 800 this year, a 76% increase compared with the same period last year. The real death toll is likely to be even higher, authorities fear.

On some journeys, none of the migrants make it to their destination alive. At least 30 bodies were found on that boat off the coast of Senegal in September, according to military authorities.
Judging by the decomposed state of the bodies, the migrant boat had probably been adrift on the Atlantic Ocean for several days before it was found.

Similarly, the bodies of 24 migrants from sub-Saharan Africa were brought to land by Spain’s Maritime Rescue Service at the start of August. Two of those who died were children.
The route has become a major talking point in Senegal, the Canary Islands and mainland Spain.

Poverty a major factor
One migrant who made the journey in a small fishing boat told the Telegraph emotionally: “The number of people that are dying – there are thousands of people losing their lives on the way. Some boats never reach their destination.”
The reasons for the surge are complex, according to Inhira Garcia Belda who works as a social integrator for asylum seekers in Tenerife, the largest of Spain’s Canary Islands.
“We are talking about thousands of people, some of them are looking for a better job in Europe, others are asylum seekers … fleeing because of Macky Sall’s regime,” she said.

Poverty is a major factor driving people out of Senegal, according to Douglas Yates, an associate professor who specialises in African politics at the American Graduate School in Paris.
“A typical Senegalese person eats rice and if they can get it, a little fish. That’s it … so this kind of poverty, which has been around forever, is driving people away. There are no real jobs or opportunities,” he said.
Yates pointed out a large proportion of Senegalese migrants making the journey are young men, who are prone to being influenced on social media.

“Everybody there has a phone, so they see the rich world and they look at their own situation and see there are no opportunities. They also see Senegalese people, especially in the capital, getting rich.”
He explained that Macky Sall, who was President of Senegal until March this year, had promised to “jump-start” the country’s economy, but for many people, their economic situation worsened – especially after Covid.
Oumar*, who also made the journey from Senegal to the Canary Islands this year, did so for this reason.
Tens of thousands of irregular arrivals land in the Canary Islands archipelago off northwestern Africa.
“I decided to take the leap because life in Senegal is very, very hard. There’s no work, there’s nothing,” he said.

Gateway to Europe
The Canary Islands have become the favoured destination for migrants, and therefore smugglers, because it is seen as an entry point into Europe, given the Canary Islands’ status as a Spanish autonomous community.
“Spain might not be the final destination,” Belda explains, “but it is the closest European country to the West African coast … they are unable to reach the continent by plane due to visa rejections, so the only way to get there is by boat.”
It is not always what migrants expect either, one Senegalese national told the Telegraph.
“The journey was so risky and dangerous, it can’t even be described. The sea was so rough that the captain wanted to return, but others wanted to continue, so a fight broke out,” they explained.

“No matter your situation, it is not worth making this deadly journey because not everyone makes it.”
Senegal’s government announced a 10-year plan in August to tackle illegal crossings and the surge in migrant deaths.
It has also become a political football between the Spanish government and authorities in the Canary Islands, which saw 40,000 illegal crossings in 2023, the highest for three decades.

Fernando Clavijo, President of the Canary Islands, has called on Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez to do more to resolve the crisis.
“Every 45 minutes, a migrant dies trying to reach our beaches. This means trafficking mafias are increasingly becoming more powerful,” he said.

Earlier this summer Sanchez ended a tour of Africa in Senegal, announcing a plan to tackle illegal immigration at a press conference alongside Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who replaced Sall in April this year.
“This region is of the utmost strategic importance for Spain and we want to contribute to its stability and prosperity,” Sanchez insisted.
But as Yates explained, these sorts of complex political agreements “take time” to come into effect and there are no signs the deep-rooted economic issues causing poverty in Senegal will abate under the new regime.
“They have a development plan, but it’s not going to increase Senegal’s GDP,” Yates said.
“Senegal can create rich people, but it doesn’t make anything … instead they’re doing this kind of symbolism stuff, like anti-colonialism. It’s just rhetoric.”

All this means the number of migrants making the treacherous journey to the Canary Islands is unlikely to fall any time soon.
Moussa*, despite knowing what he knows about the danger surrounding the journey, still plans to make his way to the Canary Islands next year.
“I want to work, integrate and to have a quiet, peaceful, stable life.”

The Mbhashe area of South Africa’s Eastern Cape province is a landscape of hills, fields and river valleys leading to the Indian Ocean. All along the ridges are the homesteads of the Xhosa people who have lived here since before colonial times. In years gone by, all these homes would have been round buildings (“rondavels”) plastered with mud and thatched with local grasses. Today, many are built with bricks and cement and roofed with zinc. Some houses are rectangular, with decorative pillars, verandas and flat roofs.

South Africa’s history of labour migration saw generations of people forced to leave these family homes to find work. But many people strongly connect with rural homes, where umbilical cords are buried as an indication of symbolic attachment to the place. People return home during holidays, when they are sick, to attend ceremonies, after retirement, and to be buried.

The rural Xhosa home looks somewhat different these days. Missionaries and colonists introduced buildings constructed using sun-dried brick and mortar with corrugated iron sheets for roofing. Migration, urbanisation and economic status also influenced the change. People admired urban architecture and could afford their desired building materials, and migration allowed designs and plans to travel.
As a geographer, I’m interested in the way space is produced and used, and the influencing factors and impacts. Recently I worked with a PhD student, Africa Ndude, on a study to explore the way traditional Xhosa customs fit in to new homes. Some customary practices and ideas relate specifically to certain parts of the traditional rondavel, and to a specific rondavel on the property. I wanted to know if that had changed over time.

We used the Mbhashe area as a case study because it hadn’t yet been featured in research on vernacular architecture.
We asked study participants to discuss the cultural utilisation of the traditional family house (indlu enkulu, the main rondavel) and whether changing building design and materials had influenced their cultural practices. We interviewed 10 people, aged 24-48, at their homes, to get an in-depth understanding. We also gave them a rondavel diagram to help them explain what happened in different parts of the house.

The interviews revealed that architectural changes had not changed the cultural norms, values, habits and behaviours attached to rondavels. Some people found ways to fit cultural ideas into contemporary house design – with adjustments for health and medical innovations.

We hope this study raises awareness about the cultural importance of indigenous architecture, and starts a conversation about how to preserve it.

Traditional family house rondavel
Among amaXhosa, the main rondavel is usually one of a cluster of structures at the homestead (umuzi). It is spatially divided based on gender, as shown in this figure.
The area labelled A is for men, and B is for women. People sit and sleep in the areas designated for their gender. The seating arrangement is based on seniority rather than age. Married women are regarded as senior to unmarried women, and men’s seating depends on when a man was initiated.

Traditionally, the family house was used for home birth because access to health facilities was limited in rural areas, but the practice is no longer common. During childbirth, men were not permitted into the space. Birth took place behind the door, in the women’s section.
In the centre of the family house is a hearth (eziko) used by women to prepare food or men to roast corn. People are served in their designated area. As men are responsible for serving meat and beer, it is also stored in the space for men, furthest from the door. The domestic essentials such as a table and cupboard, crockery, cutlery and ilitye lokuguba, a flat rock used to grind food, are located in the women’s area.

A spear (umkhonto) is stuck into the roof above the doorway on the men’s side. Men use the spear to slaughter animals during a ritual or ceremony. The spear is believed to guard against lightning during a storm.

When a family member dies, the coffin is traditionally placed in section B a day before the funeral. Senior women will sleep next to the coffin. The family elder will burn incense (a plant called impepho) to ask the ancestors to welcome the deceased.
The participants also use the family house rondavel to interact with each other in daily activities and with their ancestors during ceremonies.

Changing architectural designs
Over 66% of households in the Mbhashe municipality are traditional dwellings. There are a few contemporary houses built with bricks or blocks. Some households have a modernised rondavel; others do not have a rondavel at all. There are no planning policies in rural areas: villagers can build the type of house they want.

The residents we interviewed admired modern homes (including those who didn’t have them yet). Multiple rooms, materials like tiles and concrete, and features like lighting were seen as desirable, progressive and convenient. One told us:
I too [wish to have a modern house] because these are the houses that are built nowadays, and they make the home beautiful.
We heard that some uses of traditional family houses are adaptable to contemporary structures, such as performing ceremonies for ancestors. As one participant put it:

Any house structure can be used as a rondavel; it does not change the culture. It is the same.
But some people preferred to avoid adapting elements to contemporary houses. They said they would rather have two structures: one modern and one for uses that cannot be adapted to the modern space.

Women mostly give birth in hospitals and clinics now. If they do give birth at home, it’s because they can’t reach a health facility – not for a cultural reason. Since 2016, home deliveries have decreased to 4% nationally.
The participants told us that until the COVID-19 pandemic, the deceased’s coffin was still placed in the modern family house for a final ceremony the day before the funeral. South African COVID-19 restrictions prohibited these night vigils. Nowadays, most people bring the coffin to the house on the day of the funeral, burn incense and ask the ancestors to welcome the deceased.
People also do not opt to sleep on the floor these days unless there is a ceremony.

There is no hearth in the new house, but food may still be prepared in the B section of a rondavel on a gas or electric stove. Some will store and prepare food in the kitchen of the modern house, but serve it in the traditional rondavel.
Whatever the architectural design, and despite some changes in practice, Xhosa culture lives on in the homes of Mbhashe.

EMASWATI who will enter South Africa through informal crossings will be arrested and deported back to the kingdom this festive season.

The Border Management Authority (BMA), in partnership with other stakeholders in border law enforcement, including the South African National Defence Force (SANDF), will operate unmanned aerial systems (drones) to monitor congestions, illegal movement of people across the borderline and any acts that require interventions.

This, according to the BMA’s Commissioner Dr Michael Masiapato, would be implemented from December 10, as per the operation plan. He said from this date, the ports of entry, especially the vulnerable segments of the borderlines with South Africa, would be adequately guarded to intercept those who would be found to have illegally entered the Republic without the required documents.
“Only legitimate people and goods will be allowed to enter and exit South Africa.
The BMA warns travellers to desist from committing any form of crimes around ports of entry and border law enforcement areas,” stated Masiapato.

Therefore, he advised travellers who will enter and exit South Africa to ensure that all the required documents, including passports, travel documents and visas where applicable, were in order to avoid unnecessary delays at entry and exit ports.
While security would be beefed up at the legal ports, Masiapato said border guards will be deployed to intensify security along the vulnerable segments of the border, and members of the SANDF would be also present operating the drones that will monitor the borders for quick reaction and apprehension of illegal migrants and other cross-border criminals.
Arrested

“Illegal immigrants will be detected, arrested and deported. A total of 410 000 illegal immigrants have been intercepted since the deployment of the first cohort of the border guards in July 2022. A majority of these were fingerprinted, declared undesirable for five years and deported,” stated Masiapato.
Additionally, Masiapato said the authority had also intensified measures to detect and seize illicit goods such as narcotics and stolen motor vehicles.

Further, the commissioner said with theongoing‘OperationValaUmgodi’, the border guards would remain vigilant and prepared to intercept deported illegal miners and deter them from re-entering South Africa.

Last month, November 14, about 30 Emaswati were arrested in South Africa after they were working without permits while others did not have valid travel documents. Those who had passports were fined E1 000 each and they were deported back into the country, while those who did not have passports would be fined over E2 000 in addition to spending time behind bars before their deportation.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Home Affairs, through its Communications OfficerMlandvo Dlamini, also encouraged Emaswa ti who were used to entering South Africa via informal crossings to apply for travel documents so that they could use formal border posts to enter and exit the Republic.

We’re thrilled to announce an exciting development in South African immigration policy that has been gaining traction: the ability for foreign parents with a South African child to apply for Permanent Residence (PR). Just recently, one of our clients successfully completed their permanent residence application under this new provision, and it serves as a testament to the progressive changes being implemented by the South African Department of Home Affairs.

While this is not entirely new information—other immigration firms have experienced similar successes—it is undoubtedly a significant moment. This development is a clear reflection of South Africa’s growing commitment to upholding family unity, as well as aligning with recent constitutional court decisions that focus on ensuring that families, particularly those with foreign parents, are treated with fairness and respect within the immigration system.

Background: The Legal Framework and Family Unity

In the past, foreign nationals wishing to apply for permanent residence in South Africa based on family relationships, specifically through marriage, were required to have been married to a South African citizen for at least five years. This waiting period could be challenging, particularly for couples who had not yet reached the five-year mark, or for those who may have experienced changes in their marital status (such as divorce). This left many foreign parents of South African children in limbo, unable to secure permanent residence even though they had strong familial ties to the country.

However, recent developments have opened a clear and direct pathway for foreign parents to apply for permanent residence based on their South African citizen child. This policy shift aligns with evolving legal interpretations and is part of the broader push for more inclusive, family-friendly immigration policies in South Africa.

Under this new approach, a foreign parent can immediately apply for permanent residence if they have a South African child—even if they are not married to a South African citizen. This is a game-changer for many foreign nationals living in South Africa with their children, as it bypasses the traditional waiting periods that applied to spouses and offers a much quicker and more straightforward path to permanent residency.

Why This Matters: A New Pathway to Permanent Residence

This change in immigration policy is significant for several reasons:

1. Faster Path to Permanent Residence for Foreign Parents

Unlike the old system, where foreign spouses of South African citizens had to wait five years before applying for permanent residence, the new route allows foreign parents of South African children to apply immediately. This drastically reduces the time it takes to gain permanent status in the country, allowing families to settle without the ongoing uncertainty that temporary residency can bring.

2. Bypassing Complicated Spousal Routes

The spousal route for permanent residency was previously fraught with complexities. Couples needed to prove that their marriage was genuine and ongoing for five years, and the application process could become even more complicated in cases of marital dissolution, such as divorce. For foreign parents of South African children, this new provision offers a clearer and more secure pathway to permanent residency without the potential legal entanglements that can arise from a marital relationship.

3. Stronger Recognition of Family Unity

The South African government has increasingly emphasized the importance of family unity, particularly in light of constitutional court decisions that have reinforced the rights of foreign parents. These rulings have underscored the need to protect the right to family life, particularly for parents who have established deep-rooted connections in South Africa through their children. This policy change is not just a procedural shift but also a legal recognition of the importance of keeping families together, regardless of their parent’s nationality.

4. Addressing Uncertainty for Foreign Parents

Foreign parents who were previously on temporary residence visas or those who faced challenges in securing permanent residency based on marriage now have greater clarity and security. The uncertainty of temporary residency status—which often requires regular renewals and may lead to a sense of instability—can now be avoided by foreign parents of South African citizens, as they can apply for permanent residence and enjoy long-term stability.

Legal Developments and Constitutional Court Rulings

The shift towards allowing foreign parents of South African children to apply for permanent residency is also in alignment with several recent constitutional court rulings. These rulings have played a crucial role in shaping the current approach to immigration laws, particularly with regard to family unity and the rights of parents.

A significant ruling in this area emphasized that foreign parents—even those on temporary residency—have the right to live and work in South Africa without constant fear of deportation, provided they have children who are South African citizens. The constitutional court has made it clear that the South African state has an obligation to protect the family unit, and this includes the right of parents to remain in the country with their children, even if they are not South African citizens themselves.

In this context, the new provision that allows foreign parents of South African children to apply for permanent residence is both a natural evolution of this legal trend and a much-needed step in the direction of family-friendly immigration policy.

Protecting the Rights of Foreign Parents: The Importance of Family Stability

This change is particularly important because it directly addresses the concerns of foreign parents who often live in a state of legal uncertainty. Without the right to permanent residency, parents can find themselves in precarious situations, where their ability to remain in South Africa is tied to the expiration of temporary visas or uncertain immigration statuses.

By opening the pathway to permanent residency for parents of South African children, South Africa is offering these parents the ability to establish long-term stability for themselves and their children, fostering a sense of security and integration into the South African social and economic fabric. This stability is critical not only for the parents but also for the children, who benefit from knowing that both of their parents can remain in the country legally.

The Process: How Foreign Parents Can Apply for Permanent Residence

While the opportunity to apply for permanent residence is exciting, it’s important to understand the process involved. To apply for permanent residence based on having a South African child, the following steps are typically involved:

1. Eligibility Check

Ensure that the child is a South African citizen. This is the core requirement for the foreign parent to be eligible for permanent residence. The child must have been born in South Africa or be a naturalized South African citizen.

2. Documentation

Gather the necessary documentation, which may include:

o The South African child’s birth certificate

o Proof of the parent’s relationship to the child

o Evidence of the parent’s legal status in South Africa (such as a temporary residence visa)

o Proof of support and care for the child (e.g., school records, financial documents)

3. Application Submission

Submit the permanent residence application to the Department of Home Affairs. This can be done online or in person, depending on the specific requirements at the time. The application will be reviewed by immigration officers who will assess the eligibility based on the provided documentation.

4. Processing Time

The processing time for permanent residence applications can vary, but it generally takes several months to complete. However, given that this is a direct route for foreign parents of South African children, the process is typically more streamlined than other types of permanent residence applications.

Conclusion: A Major Step Forward for South African Immigration Policy

The recent shift in South African immigration policy, allowing foreign parents of South African children to apply for permanent residence, is a progressive and welcome change. It represents a significant step forward in the country’s immigration framework, aligning with recent constitutional court rulings and reflecting a broader commitment to family unity.

This change makes the process faster, more accessible, and more secure for foreign nationals with South African children. It also provides a much-needed sense of stability for parents who have been living with temporary residency status, helping them feel more settled and integrated into South African society.

For foreign parents in this situation, it is important to act quickly and gather all necessary documentation to take advantage of this new pathway to permanent residence. South Africa has made a clear and positive statement with this move, affirming that the bond between a parent and their South African child should be respected and protected, both legally and in practice.