The South African population has grown by 1.1% in the past year to about 63.1 million. Of this number, 51.6 million are black Africans, followed by coloured people and the white population projected at about 5 175 608 and 4 607 554, respectively. People of Indian and Asian origin are estimated to be at 1.7 million.
The population projections by province, district municipality, local municipality, main-place and sub-place are contained in this year’s report by the Bureau of Market Research (BMR). The report has not only affirmed Gauteng as the most populous province but also that there are more women than men in South Africa.
According to the report released this week, Gauteng is expected to have the largest population of about 15.3 million people, representing about 24.3% of the national population, by the end of this month. The Northern Cape has the smallest population, with about 1.37 million people, which is 2.2% of the country’s population.
The number of men is projected to be about 30.6 million people, with the women expected to be 32.4 million. The population projections guide the allocation of resources more effectively by identifying areas with higher population concentration.
According to Joshua Kembo, a senior researcher at BMR, the report means government must ensure that healthcare, education, infrastructure development and social services are targeted where they are most needed.
He said:
In essence, local governments should use these projections to plan and implement targeted interventions to optimise the resource allocation as well as develop strategies to access the demographic trends
Kembo gave an example of KwaZulu-Natal, which has a population of 12.6 million, saying it would need substantial investment to cater for the people’s needs. KwaZulu-Natal accounts for 20% of the national population.
The report notes that the ageing population has increased slightly, while the youth segment has decreased slightly in the past year. Kembo says this means government should develop strategies to address this demographic trend.
“The 65 to 69 age group has grown from 2.58% of the total population in 2022 to 2.64% this year, with an increased female representation from 2.90% to 2.97%. This trend continues into the 80+ category, which remains stable at 1.1% of the total population but shows a notable female majority at 1.5%, surpassing the male percentage of 0.7%,” states the report.
According to Kembo, this will affect the provision of healthcare and social services:
The South African population is gravitating towards ageing as there is a substantial increase in the proportion of the population reaching 65 and above. This will affect healthcare and social services [provision]. Government should make sure there are adequate resources to cater for this segment of the population, as most of them will be relying on state support as they will be out of employment
With the report also showing a slight decrease in the youth population of those aged zero to 14, Kembo says this represents not only challenges but opportunities for government to create employment for this age cohort.
According to the latest Stats SA report, the official unemployment rate stood at 32.9% in the first quarter of this year, with youth unemployment at 45.5%.
“The sustained yet declining youthful base suggests that, while the immediate workforce replenishment is secure, the gradual ageing will necessitate strategic workforce planning, with a focus on youth skill development to offset the impending retirements of the older working-age population.
“They will need employment after their school years and it means [national] government and local government should ensure [there are] employment opportunities by getting them the right skills for them to be employable.”
While some might see this as a challenge, particularly with the latest unemployment rate among the youth, Kembo believes it creates opportunities to ensure there is always an adequate supply of labour.
He said:
This is a great opportunity that should be taken advantage of by giving the youth education, skills and opportunities as well
But he did raise concerns about the kind of education the youth are getting.
He added:
Are they getting the skills that are required by the industry so they can be employed [later]? Why is this a critical question that we are asking? It is because the unemployment [rate] is substantial. “A number of youth remain unemployed and we know that among them are also those who have attended tertiary [education institutions]. We must have fit-for-purpose training and we must align this training with demand
“Are they getting the skills that are required by the industry so they can be employed [later]? Why is this a critical question that we are asking? It is because the unemployment [rate] is substantial.
“A number of youth remain unemployed and we know that among them are also those who have attended tertiary [education institutions]. We must have fit-for-purpose training and we must align this training with demand.”
The ageing population is a natural phenomenon, says Kembo, as the health infrastructure develops and the eradication of communicable diseases that cause life expectancy to decline.