Capitec’s CEO argues that SA’s jobless rate is as low as 10% and not 32,9% as stated by StatsSA — he’s right, and the numbers are equally as wrong regarding poverty and inequality.

Capitec CEO Gerrit Fourie argues SA’s jobless rate is as low as 10% and not 32,9% as stated by Stats SA – is he right? Dineo Faku of the ST reports that many don’t think so. Stats SA argues their quarterly labour force survey includes the self-employed. Peter Bruce warns that ‘you ignore the gut of Fourie at your peril, with 24 million customers he knows a lot more that Stats SA does’.
Clearly few have read the work of GG Alcock ‘Kasinomics Revolution’ who has made a career out of studying informal entrepreneurial endeavour across the townships of SA. His finding are that ‘real’ as opposed to ‘official’ unemployment does not exceed 12%.

For 30 years our unemployment, poverty and inequality conventional wisdoms, trotted out by all and sundry, have remained the same:
• SA’s unemployment is amongst the highest in the world
• 55% of South Africans live in poverty
• South Africa is the most unequal society in the world.

There is no question that over the past 30 years many of the unemployment, poverty and inequality numbers have changed significantly. I am going to argue that Gerrit Fourie is more right than wrong and that the ‘official stats’ are more wrong than right.
1. Conventional Wisdom: SA has the highest unemployment in the world at 32,9% with youth unemployment at 45.5%:
GG. Alcock, his book Kasinomics Revolution has comprehensively researched the size of the informal sector. Here are some numbers:
• Spaza shops account for R190-billion across 100,000 outlets.
• The fast food sector accounts for R90-billion across 50,000 outlets.
• The beauty sector accounts for R10-billion annually.
• The taxi sector accounts for R50-billion a year across 250,000 vehicles.
• The multi-sector is worth around R18-billion per year.
• Savings stokvels are worth R44-billion per year.
• The backroom rental sector in townships is worth R20-billion annually.
• The spaza shop rental economy is around R25-billion per year.

And there are a multitude of other businesses in these sectors including:
• Kasi building, renovations, gates, burglar guards, chrome gutters etc.
• Services — plumbing, electricians, catering and event suppliers tent, toilet and chair hire.
• Alcohol — taverns and shebeens.
• Cultural — muti, livestock, sangoma, inyanga, unveilings, funeral.
• Financial — mashonisa, stokvel, masicwabisane.

Youth unemployment at 45.5%
Mamapudi Nkgadima of Africa Response Survey writes “To solve South Africa’s dismaying youth unemployment challenge we must end the pervasive narrative that South Africans, and particularly young unemployed South Africans, are reliant on the government.

It’s quite simply not true, as a recent African Response survey has revealed. Among the respondents who classified themselves as unemployed and looking for work, 41% are earning up to R15 000 a month through income-generating activities such as baking, building and hairdressing. What this shows is that many of our young people are resilient and inventive about making ends meet. We need to reinforce that and build their confidence so that that attitude catches on.”

The EY Global Shadow Economy Report 2025 confirms ours is at 26% amongst the highest globally.
Based on these numbers alone it would seem that the informal sector could be approaching R1 trillion (25% of GDP) per annum where +/- 8 million people are involved in income generating activities.

Reality Check: If these numbers are representative real unemployment is somewhere between 10 and 15%
• Conventional Wisdom: 55% of South Africans live in poverty
There are three categories of poverty (The Economist):
• Abject poverty: defined as “a wretched life where people lack education, healthcare, proper clothing, hygiene, access to fresh water and shelter, and enough food for physical and mental health.”
• Moderate poverty: A measure of being poor, ‘poor’ being defined as between a lower-bound and upper-bound poverty line,
• Relative poverty: A measure of inequality, what the GINI co-efficient sets out to do.

The World Bank ranks poverty on the basis of income. In South Africa (SA), the national poverty lines are measured as the minimum amount of money you need to afford basic necessities like food and other essentials. The poverty lines are categorised as follows: the food poverty line (FPL) is R796 per month, the lower-bound poverty line (LBPL) is R1,109 per month (R4,436 for a family of four) and the upper-bound poverty line (UBPL) is R1,634 per month (R6,536 for a family of four). In 2024, it was estimated that 13.2 million people in South Africa lived in extreme poverty, according to Statista. Additionally, approximately 55% of the South African population, or 30.3 million people, lived below the national upper-bound poverty line.

But these numbers do not include government transfers, subsidies and the like — see below (using 2023 figures).

If you were to estimate the monetary value of the distributed “income and consumption” of the above for a family of two parents/or guardians, one pensioner, and two children it would be as follows:
• Child grant at R530 x2= R1,060
• Pensioner foster care x 1 = R1,,180
• Old age pension x 1= R2,080
• Free schooling x 2 = R1,200*
• Free food at school x 2 = R1,000*
• Subsidised school transport x 2 = R400
• Subsidised water = R300*
• Subsidised electricity = R300*
• Subsidised housing = R1,200*

Total = R8,720 per month per household, before any earned income is added!
*Here are my estimates of the monetary value of these benefits/subsidies as consumption.
Therefore, to claim that 55% of South Africans live below the upper-bound poverty line and that 22% live in extreme poverty cannot be defended in terms of the numbers above.

Reality check: If the above numbers were included in the calculation of poverty, would it change the ‘stats’? I would submit that 10% of our population would be defined as living in abject poverty (Economist) with 35% living in moderate poverty (poor).
Conventional wisdom: South Africa is the most unequal society in the world.
The GINI co-efficient, the measure of inequality, is defined as “measuring the extent to which the distribution of income or consumption among individuals or households within an economy deviates from a perfectly equal distribution. A Gini index of 0 represents perfect equality, while an index of 1 implies perfect inequality”.
Our score, which hasn’t changed over 30 years, is between .61 and .65 and states that our income inequality is among the “worst in the world”.

Definitions
Would it be fair to argue that the distribution of “income or consumption” includes all the income a household receives no matter the source, both earned and unearned; and that consumption is of all that is used by the household, whether as a result of government transfers and free services, or personal choice.

SA over the past 30 years
According to the 2024 South Africa Survey published by the Institute of Race Relations, expenditure on social services has risen from R63-billion (1995) to R1.27-trillion (2023), a 1,900% increase in nominal terms (at 5% inflation over 30 years R63-billion would have risen to R272-billion — a 330% increase).
The number of formal houses has trebled in the last 30 years, 60% of which are owned.

So do the sums!
• 8 million people working in the informal sector with 41% of unemployed youth hustling at R15 000 per month.
• Government transfers have increased from 2,046702 recipients in 1996 to 18,829716 in 2023.
• Child support grants increased from 0 in 1995 to 13,147937 in 2023.
• There are 15 372 000 formal housing structures, 90% of which have access to electricity and water (with four people to each household that would account for 61488 000 citizens with permanent shelter.
• A family of two kids, two guardians and a Gogo would access approximately R8,000 in government transfers.

CONCLUSION
So the question is, why are reputable organisations, think-tanks, research houses, political parties, NGO charities, labour unions and Stats SA constantly reminding us that we are the most unequal society in the world, that poverty remains stubbornly high at 55%, and that unemployment is on the rise at 32.9%?
• Is it a government agenda, aimed at justifying BBBEE, Equity legislation, grants and a welfare state – all in the pursuit of justifying the National

Democratic Revolution?
• Is it a think-tank agenda, aimed at proving that 30 years of ANC rule has delivered nothing?
• Is it an NGO agenda, sticking to the ‘old’ numbers to justify their ‘current’ needs?
• Is it a labour union agenda, using apartheid legacy ‘numbers’ to defend non-CPI related wage demands?
• Is it a Stats SA agenda aimed at justifying the spend on government transfers and grants?

I’m not for one minute suggesting that unemployment, poverty and inequality are not fundamental challenges bedeviling transformation and hampering redress in South Africa. But I am suggesting, as does Gerrit Fourie, that the numbers reflect our changing reality and that there has been positive upward movement which the official stats do not represent.

We need more people like CEO Gerrit Fourie, author GG Alcock, researcher JP Landman, think-tank The Institute of Race Relations who are doing the research, digging up the facts, calling out the numbers to shout louder and change our current conventional wisdom madness

Countries Including Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, Malawi, Senegal, and Cameroon, New Update You Need to Know

The US travel ban expansion is poised to significantly impact Africa’s tourism sector, with 25 African nations now facing the threat of full or partial entry bans. Countries like Egypt, Tanzania, Zimbabwe, and others are under scrutiny due to national security risks, unreliable identification systems, and high rates of visa overstays. With a strict 60-day deadline to comply with new U.S. standards, African nations are now navigating an uncertain future as they try to avoid further harm to their crucial tourism industries. This article delves into the profound Africa tourism impact of this expansion and its potential consequences on the continent’s travel and tourism landscape.

A Severe Challenge for African Tourism
The Africa tourism impact of this decision is expected to be substantial. Many African countries rely heavily on tourism as a primary economic driver, with the U.S. representing one of the largest sources of international visitors. The proposed travel ban could lead to a drop in the number of American tourists, reduced business partnerships, and potential reputational damage for several African nations that depend on a healthy tourism flow.

For nations like Egypt, which boasts iconic sites such as the Pyramids and the Sphinx, the impact could be devastating. Similarly, Tanzania’s tourism industry, known for the Serengeti and Mount Kilimanjaro, could lose a major portion of its U.S. market. The Africa tourism impact is felt deeply in regions where tourism plays a key role in sustaining local economies, providing jobs, and attracting international investments.

Reasons Behind the Ban
The US travel ban expansion is driven by a mix of national security concerns and logistical issues related to visa overstays and identity verification. Many African countries under review have been flagged for their inability to provide reliable identification systems, which is a key factor for U.S. immigration authorities to assess security risks. Additionally, high visa overstays in certain countries have led to concerns about individuals overstaying their allowed time in the U.S., further justifying the potential for more stringent travel restrictions.

Countries like Egypt, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe have also been identified for not meeting the U.S. government’s expectations when it comes to deportation agreements and the lack of cooperation in accepting nationals who are being removed from the U.S. These factors combined have prompted the U.S. to initiate the travel restrictions Africa now faces.

Affected Countries: A Snapshot of the Situation
The following African nations are among the 25 that could see their citizens face travel bans:
• Egypt
• Tanzania
• Zimbabwe
• Angola
• Benin
• Burkina Faso
• Cameroon
• Côte d’Ivoire
• Democratic Republic of Congo
• Malawi
• Nigeria
• South Sudan
• Zambia
These countries represent a significant portion of Africa’s tourism economy. With destinations like Egypt’s ancient monuments, Tanzania’s world-renowned safari parks, and Zimbabwe’s Victoria Falls, the Africa tourism impact could be deeply felt if the bans come into effect.
Diplomatic and Economic Repercussions

This Africa tourism impact extends beyond just the tourism sector. A potential decline in U.S. visitors could lead to a reduction in the revenue generated by hospitality, transportation, and local businesses that thrive on international tourism. Many African nations rely on the U.S. as a vital source of tourists, and losing this market could stunt their growth in an already competitive global tourism landscape.

Moreover, the diplomatic relations between the U.S. and these African countries could face strain. Several of these nations, such as Egypt and Nigeria, maintain strong political and economic ties with the United States. For these countries, meeting the U.S. requirements could be a delicate balancing act between complying with U.S. demands and protecting their own national interests.

Increased Tensions and the Growing Backlash
The US travel ban expansion has sparked protests and widespread criticism, both in the U.S. and abroad. Civil rights groups and tourism advocates are voicing strong opposition, with many calling the move discriminatory. Critics argue that the new restrictions unfairly target African nations, many of which are still developing their tourism industries and rely on international visitors to support local economies.
• The ban is seen by many as a continuation of the policies from the Trump era, which were criticized for disproportionately affecting Black and brown countries.
• The tourism restrictions Africa now faces may provoke a global backlash, with calls for greater cooperation between countries rather than punitive measures based on nationality.

In African countries, activists and tourism industry leaders are mobilizing to push back against the U.S. restrictions, urging their governments to engage in diplomatic discussions with Washington to find a more equitable solution.

What’s Next for Africa’s Tourism?
The 60-day deadline for affected nations to meet new U.S. standards is rapidly approaching, and the Africa tourism impact could be dire if these countries fail to comply. For many nations, this represents a crucial opportunity to strengthen ties with the U.S. by demonstrating a commitment to improving security protocols and identity verification systems.

However, for countries like Egypt, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe, whose tourism industries are heavily reliant on U.S. visitors, this may be a turning point. The potential loss of a key market could drive these nations to make swift diplomatic efforts to ensure that they meet the necessary criteria and avoid further economic setbacks.

Conclusion: Navigating the Future
As the US travel ban expansion continues to unfold, the Africa tourism impact is becoming increasingly clear. African nations face a critical challenge to protect their tourism industries while meeting the stringent demands from the U.S. government. The road ahead for these nations will require delicate diplomacy, cooperation, and rapid adaptation to the evolving international travel landscape. Whether or not these countries can meet the U.S. requirements in time will determine the future of their tourism sectors—and their broader economic health.

The short answer
Here is how to apply for a critical skills visa.

The whole question
I have been an asylum seeker for 13 years.
I saw an article on GroundUp that asylum seekers can apply for permanent residence or other forms of permits. I have a certificate in telecommunications.
How do I go about this?

The long answer
The Constitutional Court ruled in 2018 that any foreigner, including refugees and asylum seekers, could apply for temporary or permanent residence, and that this could be granted if the person fulfilled the requirements of the Immigration Act.

A person applying for permanent residence can apply from inside the country; a person applying for temporary residence has to apply from outside of the country, but you can get an exemption from this by applying to Home Affairs. (This is called a Waiver of Regulation 9(5)). VSF Global, the company that processes applications for Home Affairs, says that it will immediately accept submissions at all their offices for exemptions from having to apply for temporary residence from outside the country. A temporary residence visa includes a study visa, a business visa, a critical skills visa and a spousal visa. All of these will have different qualifications.

To apply for Temporary or Permanent Residency, you need to have the following documents ready:
• Proof of residence or spousal citizenship in South Africa
• Government issued Marriage Certificate (if you are married)
• A letter of support from the partner that holds citizenship/permanent residency
• Proof of current mental records and well-being
• A completed temporary or permanent residency application form

To apply for a critical skills visa, you need to apply online through VFS Global.
You will need to prove that you qualify for the critical skills visa by showing that your occupation is on the critical skills list.
You will need to submit a birth certificate, a medical certificate

Your passport must be valid for 30 days after your current permit expires.
VSF will submit your application to Home Affairs and they will process it, which is supposed to take about eight to ten weeks, though it could well take longer.

You will be notified by VSF to collect the outcome.
If you succeed, the critical skills visa will be valid for up to five years, though you will have to find employment within the first twelve months and notify Home Affairs of this. Once you have completed five years of employment, you can apply for a permanent resident visa.

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📞 WhatsApp: +27 82 373 8415
📧 Email: info@samigration.com
🌐 Website: www.samigration.com
Your compliance is our priority—let’s build your future together

The short answer
Yes , but you need to apply for a relative’s visa first.

The whole question
My daughter is a South African citizen. Does this mean I can apply for permanent residency? If not, are there other permits or visas I can apply for?

The long answer
You are eligible to apply for permanent residence on the basis of your daughter being a South African citizen, but as you are the parent of a South African citizen, you can apply for a relative’s visa. The South African citizen – your daughter – would need to provide financial assurance (R8,500 a month) for you as the foreign relative.

It could take months for Home Affairs to process a visitor’s visa, given the massive backlog of applications they have.

A relative’s visa is issued for two years and you are not allowed to work or study while on this visa, but you can apply for the visa to be endorsed to allow you to work if you are offered employment. That is called "changing the conditions of existing visa".

"You are eligible to apply for permanent residence via your child and if you have been in possession of work visas for at least the past five consecutive years, with a permanent job offer secured in South Africa. A minimum of five years’ work permits need to have been endorsed in a passport."

The Ernst & Young website reports that there has been a revised Critical Skills list published by the Department of Home Affairs (DHA) on 3 October 2023:
"Effective 3 October 2023, engineers who possess 'candidate registration status' with a professional body are eligible to apply for Critical Skills Work Visas and permanent residence permits. In addition, university lecturers who are not members of the South African Council of Educators (SACE) can now apply for Critical Skills Work Visas provided they are registered with a professional body in their field of expertise and employed as educators or lecturers in an accredited higher learning institution in certain subject matter areas."

🚗 Call to Action:
Contact SA Migration today to schedule a free consultation. With 25 years of experience and full compliance with the Department of Home Affairs, Labour, SAPS, and Courts, we’re here to ensure your success.
📞 WhatsApp: +27 82 373 8415
📧 Email: info@samigration.com
🌐 Website: www.samigration.com
Your compliance is our priority—let’s build your future together

This type of South African relationship or life companion permit is available to individuals in legally recognized relationships and can be applied for as either a temporary residence permit or a permanent residence permit, depending on the length of the union or relationshipship in question.

Foreign nationals who are relationships of South African citizens or permanent residents may apply for permanent residence. To qualify, the relationship must have existed for more than five years.

As a country that acknowledges diverse relationshipships and grants them the same legal recognition, South Africa issues relationship permits to individuals in all legally recognized relationships.

The relationship permit falls under the relatives' visa category and is renewable. The visa is typically issued for 36 months at a time but cannot exceed the validity period of the passport. It is a temporary residency visa available to foreign nationals who can demonstrate a committed relationship with a South African citizen or permanent resident holder. The couple must provide proof of a relationship longer than two years.

If you intend to study or work while in South Africa, you must apply for the necessary rights to be added to your visa. Individuals on a relationship permit may request either study, business, or work rights, but not all three. This means that if a work authorization is granted, you may only be employed by an approved employer.

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