South Africa is set to briefly overtake Nigeria and Egypt as the continent’s largest economy next year, International Monetary Fund forecasts show.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook envisions South Africa’s gross domestic product reaching $401 billion based on current prices in 2024, compared with Nigeria’s $395 billion and Egypt’s $358 billion. South Africa is expected to only hold the top spot for a year before it once again lags Nigeria, and then fall to third place behind Egypt in 2026, according to the report, which was released last week.   

While IMF data shows Nigeria’s economy has eclipsed South Africa’s since 2018, its fortunes have dimmed along with a decline in production of oil and it has been grappling with runaway inflation and a plunge in the value of the naira.

Bola Tinubu has announced significant policy changes aimed at getting the state’s finances back on track since he became president of the West African nation at the end of May, including revamping the foreign-exchange system, scrapping costly gasoline subsidies and taking steps to address dollar shortages and boost tax revenue. 

Those measures are causing initial pain in Africa’s most populous nation, but are expected to increasingly pay dividends going forward. The IMF sees GDP expanding 3.1% next year, compared with 2.9% in 2023. 

The reforms should lead to “stronger and more inclusive growth,” Daniel Leigh, division chief in the IMF’s research department, told reporters at the fund’s annual meetings in Marrakech, Morocco, last week.

`We believe the IMF’s projections reflects where it believes meaningful reforms will take place. South Africa’s transient emergence as Africa’s largest economy in 2024 is mainly due to the shrinking of Nigeria and Egypt’s GDP in dollar terms, following sharp currency devaluations,` says Yvonne Mhango, Bloomberg`s Africa economist. `However, the long-term trajectory shows Nigeria and Egypt regaining their top spots, with the former taking a strong lead. For Nigeria to realise the GDP expansion projected by the IMF, we think oil output must be restored to its potential; insecurity needs tackled; and the bottlenecks in the power sector addressed.`

Egypt has devalued its currency three times since early 2022 as it confronts a foreign-exchange crunch, with the pound losing almost half its value against the dollar. 

The government secured a $3 billion IMF package last year that requires a more flexible exchange rate, a move it’s only likely to undertake after December elections in which President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi is seeking to extend his rule until 2030. 

The delay has stalled IMF reviews that were initially scheduled for March and September. Successful appraisals could unlock about $700 million in postponed loan tranches, give Egypt access to a $1.3 billion resilience fund and potentially spur major Gulf investments.

The government is meanwhile in talks with the IMF on boosting its rescue package to more than $5 billion, according to people familiar with the discussions, confident it can overcome the hurdles preventing it from accessing support, including addressing concerns over its currency policy. The implementation of a reform agenda could underpin an economic growth rate of 5% or more from 2026, according to the IMF.

Unlike Nigeria’s naira and Egypt’s pound, the rand is free floating, and has lost about 10% of its value against the dollar this year. 

Currency weakness has been stoked by concerns that the National Treasury will miss its budget deficit and debt-to-GDP targets for the fiscal year through March due to increased demands on the state for support and revenue shortfalls, as a fraying transport network and record power cuts curtail economic growth.

The IMF sees South Africa’s economy expanding 0.9% this year and 1.8% in 2024, with the potential to expand 2.5% to 3% faster should it improve the power situation, tackle logistic bottlenecks and institute other reforms.

• State Information Technology Agency employees, as part of the Public Servants` Association of South Africa, are planning a nationwide shutdown on 18 October after salary negotiations reached a deadlock.  

• The shutdown is aimed to create `inconvenience` for government departments, which will be without technical support, and impact government services, including hospitals and grant payments.

• The PSA said workers will not return to work unless their demands of above-inflation salary increases are met. 

Government services, including hospitals, Home Affairs and grant payments across the country could be without technical support on Wednesday as thousands of State Information Technology Agency (SITA) employees down tools.

SITA employees who are members of the Public Servants` Association of SA (PSA) handed over a strike notice last week, indicating their intention to participate in a national shutdown after holding a number of lunchtime pickets.

The shutdown will continue indefinitely until workers` demands are met, a spokesperson for the union told News24.

This comes as negotiations between SITA and the PSA over salary increases for the 2023/24 financial year reached a deadlock in June.

Talks have been ongoing since February, with the PSA demanding an above-inflation increase of 7.5%. SITA`s latest offer was 5%.

`The PSA is concerned about SITA’s attitude towards collective bargaining and the progress in concluding salary negotiations for the 2022/23 financial year [...] The PSA urges the [Communication and Technologies] Minister [Mondi Gungubele] to intervene and instruct the SITA board of directors to improve the salary offer to 7.5%,` the PSA said in a statement.  

PSA general manager Reuben Maleka said leadership changes also impacted salary negotiations. 

`Between June and July this year, Minister [Gungubele] changed the SITA board at a time when we would also have salary negotiations, which also delayed negotiations. Over 10 members left the board,` he said. 

Salary negotiations were previously referred to the Commission for Conciliation, Mediation, and Arbitration in September this year, but no settlement was reached. 

The PSA is a key union in the sector, representing over 230 000 employees in the public service overall. It also represents the majority of SITA employees. 

Maleka said the shutdown aimed to create `inconvenience` for government departments because there will a lack of employees to restore any system that experiences technical glitches or shuts down. 

Maleka told News24: `Employees are up in arms [...] The cost of living is too high, and with petrol prices increasing, all prices will increase, including food.`

`Workers want an increase because they want to live,` he added.

Meanwhile, SITA is confident that the planned shutdown will be averted and said it was intent on breaking the deadlock between itself and PSA. 

`We have invested effort and energy towards finding lasting solution to this impasse. We have reached out to the union on a number of occasions and presented options which both sides could explore aimed at enabling us to move beyond the disputed issues,` said SITA spokesperson Tlali Tlali, adding that SITA`s wage offer of 5% was `gaining traction and resonates favourably with many employees`. 

Tlali said the industrial action would not affect its IT systems. `SITA activated its contingency plans to mitigate the impact of the industrial action on service delivery to government. The plans include reconstituting structures responsible for operational oversight and business continuity. To date, there has not been any service delivery failure occasioned by the industrial action,` said Tlali.

The Gauteng High Court in Pretoria dismissed Home Affairs Minister Aaron Motsoaledi`s application for leave to appeal its ZEP ruling.

• The court ruled in June that Motsoaledi`s failure to consult with ZEP holders, interested NGOs and the public was `unlawful, unconstitutional, and invalid`.

• The court dismissed his application with costs. 

The Gauteng High Court in Pretoria has dismissed Home Affairs Minister Aaron Motsoaledi`s application for leave to appeal against a ruling on his decision to terminate Zimbabwean Exemption Permits (ZEPs).

The court ruled in June that Motsoaledi`s failure to consult with ZEP holders, interested NGOs and the public was `unlawful, unconstitutional, and invalid`.

At the time, the court extended the permits for 12 months from 28 June, pending the conclusion of a `fair process` that includes an adequate public participation process the court found had not been done before the 7 June gazette for the ZEP termination.

The court ordered that ZEP holders must be allowed to leave or enter South Africa and may not be dealt with in terms of sections 29, 30 and 32 of the Immigration Act on the basis that they are ZEP holders. 

The department said those were the findings of the court on the applicability of certain sections of the Promotion of Administrative Justice Act (PAJA), which the Department of Home Affairs said was `highly questionable, particularly the requirement for public participation when a decision of this nature is taken, affecting a specified category of persons only. In this instance, the affected Zimbabwean nationals.`

Motsoaledi also appealed because he believed the matter dealt with the separation of powers, to which the court ruled his grounds for application for leave to appeal were flawed.

In its judgment on Monday, the High Court said Motsoaledi`s application was `destined for failure` because he did not depose an answering affidavit in the review proceedings.

`Only the minister, as the decision maker, could give evidence as to what passed through his mind and how his mind was exercised,` the judgment read.

`The rest of the minister`s grounds for leave to appeal are not necessary to traverse. It is enough to conclude by pointing out that the court was at pains to explain that its order under Section 8 (1)(e) of PAJA was temporary relief, which is distinct from a substitution order under section (8)(1)(c)(ii)(aa) of PAJA and is just and equitable remedy in terms of Section 172 (1)(b) of the Constitution.`

The court dismissed the minister`s application with costs.

• South Africans are migrants by nature.

• There are times each year when the amount of people travelling between provinces increases. 

• Here are the most popular routes - and the average cost for private rides along these routes.

South Africa`s population is used to migrating across provinces - for several reasons. 

The pursuit of economic and job prospects tops the list of reasons, followed by visits to family who have remained in the cities, towns and rural areas they originally came from.  

Each year, inDrive South Africa sees an increase in intercity car trips with its `city to city` service. 

`Compared to other regions with busy intercity routes, South Africa has significantly embraced this growth in intercity travel,` said the mobility platform.  

`South Africa`s intercity routes not only enable smooth movement of people and goods, but also highlight its economic vigour and diverse leisure attractions.` 

These routes boost viniculture, support tourism around Cape Town, and strengthen economies between major cities. 

According to inDrive, each trip presents a mix of vineyards, bustling markets, stunning beaches and historic sites, embodying South Africa`s balance of tradition and modernity, work and leisure. They weave a narrative of a nation with a rich heritage, dynamic culture and a bright future.

Based on data from its city-to-city feature, inDrive has revealed the most popular routes chosen by its users, along with the average cost for private rides along these routes.

1. Pretoria to Johannesburg:

This route`s connection between administrative and commercial hubs fosters trade, investments and business meetings. 

It is, therefore, essential for entrepreneurs, government officials and investors. 

With attractions ranging from history and parks in Pretoria to nightlife and museums in Johannesburg, tourists and local travellers can explore both urban and cultural experiences. 

The typical travel time along this route is approximately one hour. The average cost for a trip is about R200.

2. Pretoria to Rustenburg:

Rustenburg`s mining and agriculture contribute to the local economy, and the flow of goods and professionals along this route aids regional development. 

Tourists are drawn to historical sites and natural beauty and find this route appealing, with opportunities for hiking, exploring caves and visiting archaeological sites. 

The typical travel time is approximately one hour. The average cost for a trip is about R500.

3. Cape Town to Paarl:

 The route significantly supports the tourism and viniculture sectors, transporting tourists and wine enthusiasts who contribute to Paarl`s local economy. 

Travellers relish the scenic drive through the Winelands, taste some of the best wines, and visit the iconic Afrikaans Language Monument. 

The typical travel time is approximately 55 minutes. The average cost for a trip is about R200.

4. Cape Town to Worcester:

Worcester represents the essence of South Africa`s wine culture, surrounded by vineyards and set against towering mountains. 

This route celebrates the economic contribution of the wine industry. The typical travel time is approximately one hour. The average cost for a trip is about R400.

5. Johannesburg to Rustenburg:

Serving the urbanites of Johannesburg, this route sustains Rustenburg`s local businesses, from hospitality to shopping.

Rustenburg offers a rejuvenating retreat from the urban hustle and provides natural beauty, resorts and a serene atmosphere. 

The typical travel time is approximately two hours. The average cost for a trip is about R500.

6. Gqeberha (Port Elizabeth) to East London:

Facilitating tourism and business between two significant cities, this route bolsters the regional economy.

A journey from the pristine beaches of Gqeberha to the historical depths of East London offers tourists diverse experiences, from beach activities to exploring the Wild Coast. 

The typical travel time is approximately three hours. The average cost for a trip is about R1 000.

7. Johannesburg to Witbank:

This route supports the energy sector by transporting industry professionals, potential investors and goods between the cities. 

Apart from business, travellers can explore the rich landscape and engage in local cultural activities. 

The typical travel time is approximately one hour. The average cost for a trip is about R1 000.

8. Rustenburg to Pretoria: 

As a bridge between a significant economic hub and an administrative capital, this route bolsters regional trade and government-related travel.

Travellers can revel in the diverse attractions of both cities, from Rustenburg`s nature to Pretoria`s historic landmarks and gardens. 

The typical travel time is approximately one hour. The average cost for a trip is about R500.

9. Pietermaritzburg to Durban:

This route encourages tourism and local trade, tapping into Durban`s bustling markets and Pietermaritzburg`s historical charm by providing a bridge between the past and the present.

The typical travel time is approximately one hour. The average cost for a trip is about R200.

This development signifies a strengthening of ties and a new phase of diplomatic relations between both African countries. 

South Africa has decided to grant Ghanaian passport holders 90-day visa exemption starting from November 1, effectively allowing them free entry to the country. 

This decision, announced by the South African High Commission in Ghana on Friday, follows an agreement between the governments of South Africa and Ghana, signifying a strengthening of ties and a new phase of diplomatic relations between both countries. 

“The High Commission of the Republic of South Africa has the honor to inform the Republic of Ghana that both Governments agreed to implement the waiver for visa exemption for ordinary passport holders for a cumulative period of ninety (90) days per annum, with effect from 01 November 2023. 

“Should the ninety (90) days be exhausted within the twelve (12) months period, ordinary passport holders are required to apply for a visa to enter the Republic of South Africa,” the announcement read. 

The waiver for visa exemption, as outlined in the official statement released by the High Commission of the Republic of South Africa on October 13, permits Ghanaian ordinary passport holders to stay in South Africa for a cumulative period of 90 days per annum. 

However, once these 90 days are exhausted within a 12-month period, ordinary passport holders will be required to apply for a visa to enter the Republic of South Africa. 

This development is expected to facilitate easier travel between the two countries, promoting tourism, business ventures, and cultural exchange.

It not only showcases South Africa’s commitment to enhancing relations with Ghana but also opens up opportunities for collaboration and mutual benefits in various sectors.  

The development marks a significant step forward in South Africa’s international relations and cooperation with Ghana, potentially paving the way for more significant diplomatic collaborations in the future.