Claim
There are 15 million
undocumented foreigners in South Africa
Source: South African
politician and businessman Herman Mashaba (November 2020)
Verdict
Explainer: Data from
Statistics South Africa and the United Nations put the number of foreign-born
migrants in the country at around 4 million.
Mashaba pointed to a
newspaper article from November 2019 which claimed 15 million people in South
Africa were "unregistered".
According to a 2018 World
Bank dataset, there were 15.3 million people without identification documents
in South Africa, but these are not necessarily "undocumented
foreigners".
Statistics South Africa
estimates there are 3.9 million foreign-born people living in South Africa in
2020.
Researched by Cayley
Clifford
Herman Mashaba, former
mayor of South Africa's largest city, Johannesburg, caused a social media stir
in November 2020 when he tweeted that
there were 15 million "undocumented foreigners" living in South
Africa.
The country has a
population of 59.6 million.
This is not the first time
Mashaba has cited startling migration figures. In 2017 he claimed that 80% of Johannesburg's inner city
residents were undocumented migrants. Available data
did not support his claim.
Several Africa Check readers asked
us to check if Mashaba's figure of 15 million
undocumented migrants was correct. Here's what the latest data shows.
Unregistered vs
undocumented
When pressed for a source,
Mashaba shared a link to a news article from the online news website, the Citizen. The article, published in November
2019, was headlined "15 million" people in SA are unregistered, and
many are "stateless children".
The article said that
"the World Bank claims that the country has more than 15 million
unregistered people".
A 2018 dataset from the World Bank does provide
estimates of the total number of adults and children in 151 economies who do
not have "proof of legal identity".
The bank says there isn't a
universally accepted definition of "proof of identity". To get around
this, it uses a combination of administrative data and other sources such as
voter data.
The data shows that there
were 15.3 million people without identification
documents in South Africa in 2018. The figure refers to both citizens and
residents of the country.
But the data set does not provide information on the number of
"migrants, refugees and stateless persons" without South African
identity documents. These people may have other official forms of
identification, such as a passport from their country of origin.
Stats SA: 3.9 million
foreign-born people
Migrants are often referred to as "undocumented"
because they may not have legal permission to be in the country or may have
overstayed their legal right to remain in the country.
It's difficult to account
for every undocumented migrant, but available datasets point to a figure much
lower than 15 million.
South Africa's most recent census is from 2011 and showed that
approximately 2.2 million foreign-born
people were living in South Africa.
Using the country's 2020 mid-year population estimates, Stats SA
estimates the number of foreign-born people living in South Africa at around
3.9 million, Diego Iturralde, chief director of demography and population
statistics at Stats SA, told Africa Check.
"This includes
naturalised South Africans, all major categories of migrants with permits and
visas, as well as undocumented migrants," he said.
UN: 4.2 million
international migrants
The United Nations population division estimates that
there were 4.2 million international
migrants living in South Africa in 2019. This, it said, represents 7.2% of the
country's total population.
While estimating the number
of undocumented migrants is complex, Iturralde previously said, an influx of
undocumented migrants would leave behind a demographic footprint.
"You would see a surge
of deaths and of births to female migrants in the relevant age groups and in
the regions where migrants are found."
Facts (and correct numbers)
matter
After linking to his
source, Mashaba added that
"ultimately the exact number matters less than what [the Department of
Home Affairs] is doing to address this concern".
But numbers do matter,
particularly when they are being shared by public figures.
"South Africa faces
severe challenges of inequality and insecurity," Loren Landau, professor
of migration and development at Oxford University's Department
of International Development, told Africa Check.
"Neither of these is
due to immigration and they cannot be effectively addressed without first
identifying their sources and realistic solutions."
Offering up international
migrants as the "bogeymen" responsible for South Africa's
shortcomings draws attention away from the very real difficulties they face, he
said.
Research shows inaccurate information contributes to
negative stereotypes around foreign-born migrants in South Africa and can
reinforce often unfounded fears that the country is "overrun" by
immigrants.
Conclusion: Number cited
refers to people without proof of legal identity
Former mayor of
Johannesburg, Herman Mashaba, recently claimed that there are 15 million
"undocumented foreigners" in South Africa. But the number he cited
refers to both citizens and residents who do not have "proof of legal
identity".
According to Stats SA, the
number of foreign-born people living in South Africa in 2020 is around 3.9
million. This includes both the documented and undocumented. The UN population
division put the number at 4.2 million in 2019.
While working out the exact
number of undocumented migrants in the country is complex, the latest estimates
do not support Mashaba's widely shared statement. We rate his claim incorrect.
www.samigration.com