Expert says the new report gives government an opportunity to plan ahead to meet the country’s needs.
The
South African population has grown by 1.1% in the past year to about
63.1 million. Of this number, 51.6 million are black Africans, followed
by coloured people and the white population projected at about 5 175 608
and 4 607 554, respectively. People of Indian and Asian origin are
estimated to be at 1.7 million.
The population projections by
province, district municipality, local municipality, main-place and
sub-place are contained in this year’s report by the Bureau of Market
Research (BMR). The report has not only affirmed Gauteng as the most
populous province but also that there are more women than men in South
Africa.
According to the report released this week, Gauteng is
expected to have the largest population of about 15.3 million people,
representing about 24.3% of the national population, by the end of this
month. The Northern Cape has the smallest population, with about 1.37
million people, which is 2.2% of the country’s population.
The number
of men is projected to be about 30.6 million people, with the women
expected to be 32.4 million. The population projections guide the
allocation of resources more effectively by identifying areas with
higher population concentration.
According to Joshua Kembo, a senior
researcher at BMR, the report means government must ensure that
healthcare, education, infrastructure development and social services
are targeted where they are most needed.
He said:
In essence,
local governments should use these projections to plan and implement
targeted interventions to optimise the resource allocation as well as
develop strategies to access the demographic trends
Kembo gave an
example of KwaZulu-Natal, which has a population of 12.6 million, saying
it would need substantial investment to cater for the people’s needs.
KwaZulu-Natal accounts for 20% of the national population.
The report
notes that the ageing population has increased slightly, while the
youth segment has decreased slightly in the past year. Kembo says this
means government should develop strategies to address this demographic
trend.
“The 65 to 69 age group has grown from 2.58% of the total
population in 2022 to 2.64% this year, with an increased female
representation from 2.90% to 2.97%. This trend continues into the 80+
category, which remains stable at 1.1% of the total population but shows
a notable female majority at 1.5%, surpassing the male percentage of
0.7%,” states the report.
According to Kembo, this will affect the provision of healthcare and social services:
The
South African population is gravitating towards ageing as there is a
substantial increase in the proportion of the population reaching 65 and
above. This will affect healthcare and social services [provision].
Government should make sure there are adequate resources to cater for
this segment of the population, as most of them will be relying on state
support as they will be out of employment
With the report also
showing a slight decrease in the youth population of those aged zero to
14, Kembo says this represents not only challenges but opportunities for
government to create employment for this age cohort.
According to
the latest Stats SA report, the official unemployment rate stood at
32.9% in the first quarter of this year, with youth unemployment at
45.5%.
“The sustained yet declining youthful base suggests that,
while the immediate workforce replenishment is secure, the gradual
ageing will necessitate strategic workforce planning, with a focus on
youth skill development to offset the impending retirements of the older
working-age population.
“They will need employment after their
school years and it means [national] government and local government
should ensure [there are] employment opportunities by getting them the
right skills for them to be employable.”
While some might see this as
a challenge, particularly with the latest unemployment rate among the
youth, Kembo believes it creates opportunities to ensure there is always
an adequate supply of labour.
He said:
This is a great opportunity that should be taken advantage of by giving the youth education, skills and opportunities as well
But he did raise concerns about the kind of education the youth are getting.
He added:
Are
they getting the skills that are required by the industry so they can
be employed [later]? Why is this a critical question that we are asking?
It is because the unemployment [rate] is substantial. “A number of
youth remain unemployed and we know that among them are also those who
have attended tertiary [education institutions]. We must have
fit-for-purpose training and we must align this training with demand
“Are
they getting the skills that are required by the industry so they can
be employed [later]? Why is this a critical question that we are asking?
It is because the unemployment [rate] is substantial.
“A number of
youth remain unemployed and we know that among them are also those who
have attended tertiary [education institutions]. We must have
fit-for-purpose training and we must align this training with demand.”
The
ageing population is a natural phenomenon, says Kembo, as the health
infrastructure develops and the eradication of communicable diseases
that cause life expectancy to decline.